| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Background and objective: Today, Iran is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change due to its geographical and climatic characteristics. One of the most important negative effects of climate change is the increase in temperature, which can increase the risk of wildfires from now on. The phenomenon of wildfires is an environmental challenge and one of the dangers that threatens a large part of the world's forests, Iran is not an exception to this rule. Therefore, the purpose of this research was to investigate the effect of global warming on the increase in the risk of wildfires in Iran by using remote sensing technology and spatial analysis.
Method: The temperature parameter data of the synoptic stations (Mehrabad, Yazd, Bam, Shiraz, Isfahan and Bushehr) during the common period of 1988-2020 in a 32-year period were received from the Meteorological Organization. Then, Excel macro and XLSTAT used to check the temperature trend. In order to identify the vegetation cover index (NDVI) from the data of Landsat 8 satellite and prepare the vegetation cover map from Land Cover 10m 2017 satellite images, it was extracted in the Earth Engine environment. Then, the criteria (height, slope, slope direction and width of solar radiation levels) were used to calculate the topography. In order to identify the distribution and prepare the kernel density map of wildfires areas based on the classification of low-risk and high-risk areas, its data was received from NASA's MODIS C6 during the years (2000-2023).
Findings: The results of examining the temperature trend in all stations during the 32-year period showed an increasing and significant trend at the level of 95 and 99 percent. This can be caused by the increase of greenhouse gases in urban centers, which is acceptable The results of the NDVI index showed that areas with dense vegetation are susceptible to wildfires risk. Investigation of the area of radiation surfaces in the northern highlands of Tehran, in the Caspian banks and northern areas of Iran, northwestern Iran (Ardebil and Tabriz), central areas (Kerman, Isfahan, Yazd and Shiraz) had a high pixel value and the amount of radiation receiving area Sunlight and this means was more than other regions of Iran. Finally, the map of distribution of points and intensity of kernel density showed that the provinces of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad and Khuzestan are prone to a higher risk of wildfiers.
Results: As a result of, Iran has faced climate change caused by global warming. Considering the new climate of Iran, which will experience hotter and dryer weather, it will be more prone to wildfiers. Therefore, a comprehensive program plan to reduce the effect of climate change and climate future perspectives should be considered in the field of crisis management in Iran. This will contribute to the effectiveness of reducing vulnerability and increase resilience. |
| کلیدواژههای انگلیسی مقاله |
Wildfires, Climate Change, Spatial analysis, Crisis management, Natural hazards, Mann- Kendall. |
| نویسندگان مقاله |
نیلوفر محمدی | Niloofar Mohammadi
Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
گروه آب و هواشناسی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
زهرا حجازیزاده | Zahra Hejazizadeh
Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
گروه آب و هواشناسی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
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