| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Introduction: The rate of population aging in Iran is higher than the regional and global levels and since 2040 decade, Iran will enter the phase of aged societies. Considering the importance of the changes that population aging will bring about in Iranian society, the aim of this study is to investigate the challenges and drivers of population aging in the next three decades of Iran.
Method: The approach of the present study is the futures studies using the scenario writing method. Data and trends were collected from different sources in order to understand the possible challenges facing the aging of the population. Then, the obtained information was analyzed using experts' opinions, structural analysis, balance analysis of mutual effects, and scenario planning. The data has been analyzed using Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software.
Findings: In this study, the most effective variables on population aging in the future included governance variables in the field of old age, pension funds, consumer spending at micro and macro levels, welfare distribution, fertility and family size, insurance and pension coverage, which actually The main determinants or drivers were those that affected the special force of old age, intergenerational communication and social participation, and finally, the lifestyle and quality of life of the older adults, as outcome variables and output of the system. Based on the most effective variables and identifying the alternatives of each one, the possible scenarios of the future of old age in the perspective of 2050 can be in the form of possible scenarios of "Risky ageing", " Twilight ageing", "Dawn of ageing", and "Prosperous ageing".
Conclusion: To achieve the desired scenario, the state of " prosperous ageing" in Iran, we need a smart governance with a forward-looking view, equal welfare distribution, win-win pension funds, active participation market and fertility rate above the replacement level. |
| کلیدواژه‌های انگلیسی مقاله |
Aged, Population, Uncertainty, Forecasting, Pension fund, Pension fund, Iran |
| نویسندگان مقاله |
نسیبه زنجری | Nasibeh Zanjari
Iranian Research Center on Aging, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran
مرکز تحقیقات سالمندی، دانشگاه علوم توانبخشی و سلامت اجتماعی، تهران، ایران.
سیده زهرا کلانتری بنادکی | Seyedeh Zahra Kalantari Banadaki
National Institute of Population Research, Tehran, Iran
موسسه تحقیقات جمعیت کشور، تهران، ایران.
رسول صادقی | Rasoul Sadeghi
Department of Demography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
گروه جمعیت شناسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
احمد دلبری | Ahmad Delbari
Iranian Research Center on Aging, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran
مرکز تحقیقات سالمندی، دانشگاه علوم توانبخشی و سلامت اجتماعی، تهران، ایران.
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