| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Background: The present study investigates the incidence of breast cancer in Iran at province level and also explores the impact of some covariates some risk factors by use of the temporal risk of cancer, Poisson, Log-Normal, and BYM models.
Methods: This study is an ecological study and the study population includes all patients with breast cancer between 2005 and 2009 in Iran. Risk factors for the disease included, physical activity and overweight, from annual report on the registration of cancer cases in the country. Individuals with a positive diagnostic test or a biopsy test for breast cancer were identified as definitive and registered at the Breast Cancer Registry. To estimate the relative risk indices, spatial risk, and also the temporal risk of cancer, Poisson, Log-Normal, and BYM (Besag, York, Mollie) models were used.
Results: The total number of registered breast cancers in the years 2005 to 2009 in Iran was 32694 cases. Among the provinces, the most observed cases are related to Isfahan provinces with 2862 cases and Khorasan Razavi province with 2646 cases. The lowest incidence is related to Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces with 104 cases. The highest relative risk of breast cancer was observed in 2009 in Tehran and the lowest in Kohkiluyeh Boyer-Ahmad and Sistan-Baluchestan.
Conclusion: Due to the better fit of the BYM model, it is recommended to use the BYM model in future studies, and considering the significance of the human development index variable, this variable should be considered in similar studies. |
| نویسندگان مقاله |
| Hasti Hashemi
Department of Statistics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University،Tehran, Iran.
| Behzad Mahaki
Department of Biostatistics, School of Health, Social Development and Health, Promotion Research Center, Research Institute for Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
| Rahman Farnoosh
School of Mathematics, Iran University of Science and Technology,Tehran, Iran.
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